When temperatures become difficult to endure, mobility, shopping and leisure habits begin to shift: some consumers decide not to leave home, others turn to online shopping, while air-conditioned malls can become particularly attractive destinations. Extreme heat does not simply influence which products people buy. It is gradually reshaping the entire consumer journey.

Weather no longer determines only what we buy

Weather has always influenced consumption. A rainy day can reduce traffic at an outdoor café, while a sunny weekend can boost sales of patio furniture, cold drinks or summer clothing.

Heat waves, however, introduce a different dynamic: they do not merely change the products consumers look for, but also influence the places they are willing to visit, the amount of time they are prepared to spend traveling and the activities they are still comfortable doing.

This issue has become particularly tangible in 2026. After an unusually early heat wave in May, Western Europe experienced its hottest June on record, with average temperatures more than 3°C above the 1991–2020 average, before another period of extreme heat developed in early July.¹

Under these conditions, outdoor temperature becomes an integral part of the customer journey, influencing the effort required to reach a store, the comfort experienced during the visit and the appeal of going out compared with staying home.

The Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco has similarly noted that an extremely hot summer day can make an indoor, air-conditioned mall especially attractive, while the same temperatures may discourage consumers from visiting open-air shopping environments or locations that require prolonged exposure to the heat.²

Heat is therefore no longer simply a weather variable. It is becoming a factor in mobility, foot traffic and commercial performance..

Going out less, but choosing destinations more carefully

When temperatures become extreme, some consumers naturally limit their movements, postpone nonessential outings and avoid walking routes or places exposed to direct sunlight. Yet this overall decline in mobility does not affect every retail environment in the same way.

In June 2026, during the heat wave that affected the United Kingdom, total retail foot traffic fell by 3.4% compared with the previous year. High streets were the most severely affected, with traffic declining by 6.2%, while stores located inside shopping centers recorded a more limited decrease of 2.5%.³

Another figure reveals an even more interesting shift: while visits inside individual mall stores declined, overall traffic to shopping centers as destinations increased slightly, by 0.6%. Consumers were therefore continuing to visit these locations without necessarily entering more stores.³

This difference helps explain how shopping habits change during a heat wave. Consumers no longer select only a retailer or a product. They also choose an environment capable of making the outing bearable.

An air-conditioned shopping center can then become a place where people walk in a cool environment, have a meal, entertain their children, meet friends or simply escape the heat for a few hours. 

In this context, air conditioning is no longer merely a comfort feature. It becomes a reason to visit.

A cooler environment attracts visitors, but does not guarantee sales

A study conducted in Seoul using credit card transaction data found that in-store sales increased by 4% during heat waves when temperatures exceeded 35°C. The researchers linked this growth in part to consumers seeking temperature-controlled indoor environments and purchasing products that offered immediate thermal relief, including cold beverages.⁴

These findings do not mean that every heat wave will automatically increase sales across every shopping center. Consumer behavior also depends on the local climate, the cooling systems available in people’s homes, the accessibility of the location, the retail and leisure offer, and established cultural habits.

They nevertheless highlight an important mechanism: when the outdoor environment becomes uncomfortable, places capable of offering relief from the heat become more attractive. Restaurants, beverage outlets, ice cream shops, movie theaters, indoor leisure venues, children’s facilities and retailers selling heat-related products may therefore benefit from particularly favorable conditions.

However, higher foot traffic does not necessarily translate into higher revenue. A shopping center may attract more visitors who primarily use its common areas without entering additional stores, while lower overall traffic may sometimes consist of more targeted visits from consumers looking to address a specific need.

The impact of heat should therefore be assessed beyond the number of people entering a location, through indicators such as dwell time, store entry rates, conversion, average transaction value and performance by retail category.

E-commerce also benefits from extreme heat

Heat waves do not only redirect consumers toward air-conditioned spaces. When temperatures become too intense, they can also persuade people not to leave home at all.

In June 2026, online sales accounted for 29.4% of total retail spending in Great Britain, the highest proportion recorded since April 2021. The Office for National Statistics also reported that sales among non-store retailers were supported by the hot weather and promotional activity.⁵

Consumers are therefore no longer choosing only between a shopping center and a high street. They are weighing three options: visiting an exposed retail environment, traveling to an air-conditioned destination or ordering from home.

Heat waves consequently create two apparently contradictory movements. They can strengthen the appeal of certain physical locations while reducing overall mobility and accelerating the shift toward e-commerce.

For physical retailers, the challenge is not simply to capture the consumers who are still willing to leave home, but to provide an experience that is comfortable, useful and attractive enough to justify the trip.

Thermal comfort is becoming a competitive advantage

Not every retail location will benefit from extreme heat in the same way. An enclosed, properly air-conditioned mall with direct access from a covered parking facility has a clear advantage over a retail park where visitors must walk outside between stores.

Performance, however, will not depend on the building alone. It will depend primarily on the shopping center’s ability to become a genuine destination.

A mall consisting exclusively of stores may attract people seeking a cooler environment without successfully extending their visit or converting them into customers. By contrast, a destination that combines restaurants, movie theaters, family activities, services, comfortable seating areas and event programming can transform a difficult weather condition into an opportunity for visits and spending. This shift is part of a broader return to premium offline experiences, where the quality, comfort and distinctiveness of the physical environment become key components of perceived value.

Heat waves are therefore reinforcing a transformation already underway across physical retail: as products and services become increasingly accessible online, real-world experiences are becoming an increasingly important driver of value and differentiation. To remain attractive, a shopping center can no longer function solely as a place where consumers purchase products that are also available online. It must become an environment where spending time feels useful, enjoyable and worthwhile.

Retail operators can support this shift by incorporating weather forecasts into their campaigns and event planning, adapting opening hours to cooler parts of the day, improving access to seating and drinking water, and developing offers connected to leisure, dining and heat-related consumer needs.

Improving thermal comfort, however, cannot depend on uncontrolled energy consumption. Insulation, shading, access management and intelligent building systems will be essential to balancing customer experience, operating costs and environmental responsibility.

Heat is redefining the value of physical retail

Heat waves can strengthen the relative appeal of air-conditioned shopping centers, particularly when compared with high streets and outdoor retail environments, but they do not represent a guaranteed source of growth.

When temperatures become extreme, some consumers prefer to remain at home and shop online; among those who do travel, others may primarily be looking for a cooler environment, with no immediate intention to make a purchase.

The real opportunity therefore does not lie in the simple presence of air conditioning, but in the transformation of a retail space into a comfortable, useful and welcoming destination capable of responding to emerging consumer and urban needs. These new trade-offs also reflect a broader strategic reality: tomorrow’s customers will not necessarily travel, shop or choose the same places as today’s.

As periods of extreme heat become more frequent, thermal comfort could become a competitive advantage as important as the retail mix, accessibility or pricing.

Physical retail will no longer need only to make people want to buy. It will need to give them a reason to leave home.

💬 At Hypevision, we analyze societal, commercial and behavioral shifts to help businesses identify the opportunities that will shape their markets. Looking to anticipate how changing consumer habits could affect your business? Contact us to start the conversation.

Sources

1. Organisation météorologique mondiale, 2026, Western Europe Has Hottest June on Record.

2. Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco, 2022, The Impact of Weather on Retail Sales. 

3. British Retail Consortium et Sensormatic, 2026, Footfall Takes a Hit as Heatwave Pushes Shoppers Indoors.

4. Yoo, Jonghyun, Eom, Jiyong et Zhou, Yuyu, 2024, Thermal Comfort and Retail Sales: A Big Data Analysis of Extreme Temperature’s Impact on Brick-and-Mortar Stores, Journal of Retailing and Consumer Services.

5. Office for National Statistics, 2026, Retail Sales, Great Britain: June 2026.