At first glance, the phenomenon might seem unremarkable. A new generation of coffee shops multiplying across cities, welcoming remote workers with laptops and lattes within reach. But behind this almost-banal image lies a much deeper signal: a structural shift in how urban professionals now think about their workspace. And that shift is putting direct pressure on a model once considered the future of work: traditional coworking.

Coworking: a cracking eldorado

For a decade, coworking embodied the future of work. Modern spaces, inspiring design, communities of freelancers and startups, flexible memberships, unlimited coffee. The model felt unstoppable. And for a long time, the numbers followed.

The global coworking market was projected to reach $120 billion in 2025, up from just $30 billion in 2018, according to Welkin & Meraki.

But a far more telling signal has come to challenge those projections: actual usage.

According to Buffer's State of Remote Work report, only 5% of remote workers actually use a coworking space as their primary work location. In contrast, 82% work from home, with the rest split between cafés and other third-places.

The gap between the media hype around coworking and its real-world usage is striking, and it says a lot about what comes next.

On the ground, the shift is also visible: Manhattan - the global capital of coworking - recorded the first contraction in its history during Q2 2025, in terms of total coworking square footage, according to CoworkingCafe. A signal made even more significant by the fact that it occurred in the world's most dynamic coworking market.

The quiet rise of "coffee house working"

While the coworking model is being challenged in practice, another movement, much quieter, but much more powerful, is taking shape. A new generation of cafés - specialty coffee shops - gradually becoming the real new workspaces of the city.

In Paris, Brussels, Lisbon, Berlin: openings are multiplying at a pace we haven't seen in years.

And the numbers confirm the trend:

• The global specialty coffee market is estimated at $111.5 billion in 2025 and projected to reach $251.7 billion by 2033 (CAGR of 10.8%), according to Grand View Research.
• In Europe, the market is growing at an annual rate of approximately 10.7%.
• In the UK, branded coffee shops grew by 5.2% in 2024 to reach 11,456 outlets, according to Allegra World Coffee Portal's Project Café UK 2025 report.
• In Brussels, the Brussels Coffee Show has gone from 3,918 visitors to a 6,500-visitor target in just two years, with a vibrant local specialty coffee scene.

Brussels, in fact, has become one of Europe's most active capitals in this space — to the point that two of its coffee shops were recently ranked among the world's best.

Yann Leonardi pinpoints the real signal

In a recent video analysis, Yann Leonardi, a growth marketing and brand building expert, breaks down the coffee shop phenomenon with sharp insight. And his analysis highlights several essential points:

• A genuine explosion of supply. In Paris, new coffee shops open every single week. Each with its own bean selection, its recognizable Pinterest aesthetic, its codified vocabulary (flat white, cortado, V60, single origin).
•  An economy that goes far beyond the cup. The high-end espresso machine market is growing at around 9% per year, and domestic machines alone represented $11.6 billion in 2024. Coffee culture is structuring itself at unprecedented scale.
• A new consumption model. A cappuccino now costs up to €6.50 in some Parisian coffee shops, compared to €1.50-1.80 in Italy. It's no longer just that consumers are paying more: they are actively choosing to pay more for an experience.
• And most importantly: an identity marker. The perceived quality of a neighborhood is now directly proportional to the density of coffee shops within it. It has become a quiet yet powerful signal of lifestyle quality.

In other words, the coffee shop is no longer just another retail business. It's a place of life, a social anchor, a cultural marker. And that's precisely what makes it so strong as a competitor to coworking.

Why coffee shops win where coworking struggles

The comparison between the two models is revealing.

Where coworking spaces value:

• Contractual commitment (monthly or yearly memberships)
• A uniform, codified professional environment
• A community often labeled "tech & startup"
• Closed spaces designed for productivity

Coffee shops value:

• No commitment: you consume, then you leave
• An informal, ever-changing aesthetic
• Real social diversity (students, freelancers, employees, parents, creatives, travelers)
• A sensorial experience: smells, ambiance, music, light social interaction

Coworking imposes a framework. The coffee shop offers an atmosphere.

And in an era of growing digital fatigue - where 38% of consumers say they struggle to keep their screen time within acceptable limits (and 53% among 18-to-40-year-olds, according to Deloitte) - where the need for vibrant, sensorial, lightly codified places keeps rising, the coffee shop checks every box.

Coworking, on the other hand, is often perceived as a "premium" version of the open space - an extension of the office people were trying to escape in the first place.

Remote work changed everything… but not in the expected direction

The argument is almost counterintuitive: the massification of remote work should have strengthened coworking. In reality, it weakened its core target, because actual behaviors diverged from initial projections. 

Most remote workers stay home for long, focused work sessions. And when they do feel the need to step out, the economic and emotional trade-off rarely favors coworking.

For many remote workers, the café is not a full-time workspace: it's an escape. One day a week. Two afternoons a month. A break in the rhythm. A place to escape the monotony of home without committing to a €250/month coworking membership.

This logic of uncommitted, transactional use - "I come, I consume, I work, I leave" - is now reshaping the entire market for flexible workspaces.

What's coming for coworking and coffee shop players: the Hypevision forecast

Coworking, as we've known it so far, is not going to disappear. But it is going to transform deeply, or risk marginalization.

The model of leasing 200 m² of flexible offices with a foosball table, a lounge corner, and a Nespresso machine no longer cuts it. The competition is no longer internal to coworking. It now comes from the outside, and from the warmest, cheapest place in the city. The café.

For coworking players, three strategic directions are emerging:

1. Become "hybrid hubs" combining workspaces, dining, events, and even short-stay hospitality (Wojo's partnership with Accor is a good example)
2. Specialize by vertical (coworking for creatives, female entrepreneurs, tech, healthcare) rather than chasing a generic mass market
3. Go fully B2B by signing directly with large companies for their hybrid employees, instead of chasing freelancers one by one

For coffee shop players, the transformation is equally structural and the opportunities are massive:

1. Rethink the layout: simple tableware, plenty of power outlets, fast Wi-Fi, ergonomic seating. The coffee shop of tomorrow must be able to welcome a remote worker while remaining, fundamentally, a café.
2. Build a differentiated usage economy: dynamic pricing across time slots, bookable tables, quiet zones vs. social zones, monthly coffee subscriptions.
3. Invest in a strong sensorial brand: what brings customers back isn't the Wi-Fi: it's the atmosphere, the aesthetics, the coffee quality, and the welcoming staff.
4. Anticipate the saturation effect: in Paris, some cafés already ban laptops on weekends or refuse remote workers during peak hours. The right balance will come from intelligent segmentation between "work-friendly" venues and "leisure-only" venues.

Over the next 5 years, we believe we'll see the emergence of an entirely new hybrid model: neither café nor coworking, but something fundamentally new.

Spaces where you'll come to work as to meet, to drink a cappuccino or host a client meeting, as much as to stay 20 minutes or spend the whole day. No subscription. No contract. No commitment.

With, as the only "entry ticket", a beverage and a smile.

The coffee house, in essence, but reinvented for the era of liquid work.

The first players to grasp this - whether they come from coworking or from hospitality - are already building a significant lead. The others will likely face a market that has transformed without them.

And as often, the most powerful transformations do not come from visible revolutions, but from subtle shifts in behavior that initially seem almost anecdotal.

💬 At Hypevision, we support organizations looking to decode weak signals, anticipate market shifts, and turn emerging trends into sustainable and differentiated growth drivers.

Are you a player in coworking, hospitality, food & beverage, or commercial real estate, looking to assess how these new behaviors could impact your business? Let's talk.

Sources

1. Welkin & Meraki  - Projections du marché mondial du coworking (2018–2025)

2. CoworkingCafe (via Bisnow)  - Contraction du marché du coworking à Manhattan, Q2 2025

3. Coffee Fest Madrid / The World's 100 Best Coffee Shops 2025

4. Buffer - State of Remote Work Report 

5. Grand View Research - Specialty Coffee Market Size Report 2025-2033

6. Allegra World Coffee Portal  - Project Café 2025

7. Brussels Coffee Show - Données de fréquentation 2024-2025

8. Yann Leonardi - "Le scam des Coffee Shops : ENQUÊTE" (YouTube)

9. Deloitte - Connectivity & Mobile Trends Survey 2023 : fatigue digitale et saturation numérique

10. Welcome to the Jungle - Enquête sur les télétravailleurs en café et la guerre déclarée par certains gérants

11. Owl Labs  - Baromètres télétravail 2